Transition y planeación para emergencias - diferencias entre Inglaterra y Mexico -

Hola-

aqui un comentario que deje en el blog de Rob Hopkins, bajo la dirección de http://transitionculture.org/2009/05/27/to-plan-for-emergency-or-not-heinberg-and-hopkins-debate/ , donde se publicó un debate entre Richard Heinberg y Rob acerca de la planeación para emergencias y su probable inclusión en el concepto de transición.

Todo el debate es muy interesante, pero un tanto ridiculo para México, ya que aqui transición sera reacción a la emergencias.

saludos, hasta pronto


Hello all

saludos de Mexico

coming from Mexico, the country with the - for the moment- most dramatic energy descent panorama in the world, I´m following the transition movement in Britain (the country with probably the second most dramatic oil depletion)with a lot of interest.

This current discussion highlights the differences between the European/ US-American "planning" mentality, and the latin "take life as it comes" style...being European myself (I was born and raised in Germany), but living in Mexico as a Permaculture Activist for more than 15 years, this ambivalence goes straight through my own personality....

Having had the opportunity to live (personal and family) Transition "a la mexicana" for the last two years, its quite interesting, that at least in this point, we do not have such a problem: Transition WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE emergency response in Mexico, because "preparing" as you might perceive it in Europe or the US, is not so much part of the latin culture, apart from the fact, that the mexican decline is so fast and dramatic, that it will lead almost certainly to some very dramatic changes on the macro level within the next few month.

In febuary, i posted a review (in spanish) of the Transision Handbook on our website http://www.tierramor.org/ , stating that the first two chapters of the book ("The head", and "The heart") offered to me some of the most valuable insights regarding PO and Climate change, and the psycho-social aspects of it, but the third chapter "The hands" needs adaption to Latin American contexts to be useful.

There are quite some cultural, economic, social ecological differences, not all of them have to be disadvantages-

Of course, here in Mexico, the depletion is so fast, and the situation is changing so rapidly, that its difficult to keep yourself "up to date" - the recent "swine flu" episode was just the last of some really strong and possibly "transformative" events, that for the moment keep most of the people from seeing a wider picture. Also thanks to the top-down-controlled and manipulated media, there is very little information on oil depletion around, and most of the people aware of the issue tend to shift directly towards the survivalist extreme...

Nevertheless, the "cultural memory of a sustainable pre-industrial society", reality in most of rural Mexico until quite recently (30 years ago in my bioregion), as well as the more intact social networks, plus the "spontaneity" and even capacity of Mexican civil society during catastrophic events (remember the immense popular response to the earthquake in mexico city in 1985) suggest a higher level of resilience than in most of the so called "first world" countries.

It will be badly needed here.

Although most of the Transition Debate is centered to the "developed" countries (England, US, Japan, Holand, Germany, ...), this is just to remind you, that transition will have to happen everywhere, planned or not, so keep an eye on Mexico, if you are interest how fast energy decline may plays out in the so called "emerging" countries... we are observing closely what is happening in England....

For the moment, I thing that transision without emergency planning will be without effect here, we have to include it due to the dramatic changes happening here at the moment

regards

Holger Hieronimi

Muy buen comentario, Holger; nada más me quede con una duda; dices que:

the mexican decline is so fast and dramatic, that it will lead almost certainly to some very dramatic changes on the macro level within the next month.

¿Qué evento o circunstancias ves sucediendo dentro de un mes, que te hacen pensar que habrá unos cambios muy dramáticos en el nivel macro?

Saludos!

perdon- debería que haber dicho

"within the next few month"

tampoco soy profeta, asi esto de las fechas exactas es siempre algun riesgo- hay que tener cuidado con esto, ya lo rectifiqué en la aportacion de arriba, es tarde ya para arreglarlo en transisionculture

sin embargo: Como lo van a resolver los gobernantes de este país, si en un año colapsan sus tres economías mas importantes: El petroleo, las remesas y el turismo ??? Parallelamente, las maquiladoras estan cerrando, como las armadoras de carro también.... Esto son cambios profundos y estructurales - Mas bien, debes que ser un santo soñador si vas a suponer, que el cambio en tantos factores macroeconómicos NO va a provocar cambios fundamentales en todo nivél.

Para mi, todo indica que intentan a toda costa esconder/ tapar el drama económico hasta después de las elecciones, al mas tardar después de estas vendrá algun evento mayor. Por lo menos me imagino un colapso económico, sino politico, y después una restructuración a menor complejidad, lo que a lo mejor pueda tardar un ratito.

vamos a ver.-

Metiendo la cuchara un poquito, siento que para que no exista disturbios sociales, vamos a volver a tener la influenza presente por septiembre u octubre, asi todo el mundo en casita, viviendo a la antiguita, y si toda la economia se va para abajo, (como ya esta sucediendo) no es culpa ni del petroleo, ni de las remesas, ni turismo, ni del gobierno.

Es por culpa de la Influenza, y el gobierno nos esta cuidando.

Saludos

Lo que son las cosas; se me había olvidado por completo que era año electoral, o más bien, había olvidado hacer al conexión entre los diferentes eventos!

Tienen razón, eso tiene mucho peso a la hora de tomar decisiones por parte del gobierno; a ver como se pone la cosa una vez que esto haya pasado, y ya no estén buscando nada más proteger apariencias con fines electorales.