Para discusion - borrador del articulo "Energy descent and transition in Mexico"

Energy descent and transition in Mexico

I. Introduction-

“In Mexico nothing happens, until it happens”-this is a general proverb here; which can also apply to the current situation. Everything feels tranquilo and smooth, nothing away from the ordinary. However, as history shows us, once something begins in Mexico, it generally develops rapidly, arriving to be intensely spectacular.

In the last few month, amongst every days news about the unfolding financial meltdown, the dramatic decline of Mexican oil extraction was about to be forgotten. But the recent news about new strange diseases may highlight this issue again. When combined with the fact, that the central government is about to loose any capacity to control the mighty drug cartels (an undoubtedly large situation is upon us), this looks as just another serious and inmediate issue.

Unlike many oil companies, PEMEX has been comparatively open with its data. Therefore the state of Mexican oil reserves was well known to geologists, quite some time before the peak actually occurred in 2005/ 2006. In November 2003, this delicate situation was announced and discussed in the ASPO Newsletter (1).

Until recently, for the wider public at least, Peak Oil Mexico and its consequences have remained outside focus. Thus the rapidly changing economic and socio-political context in this large and diverse country, within the last two and a half years, comes apparently “by surprise”. But with an admitted 9.2% oil production decline in 2008 (some analysts say, it’s more), Mexico is somewhat a showcase of how Peak Oil and fast energy descent may play out in the so-called “emerging” countries.

This article is an attempt to relate aspects of Mexico’s history and society (a review on energy and history is pubished parallel to this), with the realities, challenges, and opportunities this country faces in context of the imminent transition. It has been in writing since about august 2008 (but since realities change faster here than one could write, is has changed shape and content several times). It is intented as a contribution to the mostly internet based discussions around Peak Oil and energy. Having followed for quite a while the debate arount global energy descent and Transision, I´m allways quite surprised on how centered the debate is around the situation in affluent countries.

My contributions are clearly biased, coming from the perspective of a German-born permaculture activist, who has been working and living with his family in rural Mexico for the last 15 years. Most of this time I have been involved with projects and initiatives related to sustainable rural development, ecovillages, permaculture teaching and design (2). I have completed most of my permaculture related studies and experiences here. I am not Mexican by birth, but have some insight into its life and culture- (if you ever can get to “know” such an incredibly diverse and complex cultural mosaique).

My awareness of Peak Oil was raised quite late in the game, thanks to David Holmgren and Su Dennett, who we had the opportunity to meet, and co-organize a series of courses and presentations with, during the Mexican leg of their Latin-America-Tour, in July and august of 2007. Since then, my family and I have been involved in progressively understanding, internalizing and living “The Great Change.” We are focusing our attention mainly on improving resilience of our family, our small permaculture-inspired homestead (3), our social networks and bioregion, working “bottom-up”, as this is the “permaculture way.” So, living the unique opportunity of transition á la Mexicana....

II. Mexico today – some not so official impressions

Up to now, an astonishing 60% of PEMEX revenues go directly to support Mexico's huge bureaucratic governmental system, which directly and indirectly employs hundreds of thousands of Mexicans. Conservative governments, in power since the beginning of the millennium, initially planned to reduce this inflated bureaucracy. They quickly gave up, continuing forward with the current system. As a result alternatives to employ people in a national economy, who are left out of the governmental loop, are practically non-existent.
Official energy “security” strategies are erratic at best, and include the following developments (just a few of the dozens of curiosities we find in recent news):
In Sonora, some production surplus of corn exists, as a result of its irrigation-based agriculture, recently was inaugurated a state of art plant to produce corn ethanol. Somewhat, it is better business to turn that surplus corn into a very low-yielding fuel, than to provide tortillas for the dry regions in the northern parts of Mexico, where agriculture is becoming virtually impossible by conventional means due to exhausted deep-water reservoirs and unpredictable rain patterns.
On the other side of the country, huge expanses of regrowth forest in Campeche, Yucatan and other regions are cut down to plant genetically modified eucalypt, for future biofuel production.
Meanwhile, in southern Mexico (especially Chiapas), state & federal government are implementing, with corporate money and a lot of television propaganda, the concept of “rural cities.” About a dozen newly designed and built urban areas, planned to attract and relocate all those indigenous communities dispersed in the mountains, are “officially” stated to give services, education, supermarkets, and work ... The first one of this projects was inaugurated a few month ago. The hidden intention seems to be to exploit the natural resources in the mountains, freed once original inhabitants abandon their homes. Especially some rather small oil fields, that lie in part of the Lacandon rainforest. This area still is extremely contencious, as the indigenous rebels of EZLN also have influence. Not to mention that this huge zone bordering Guatemala was declared a biosphere reserve in the early nineties.
Since energetic and economic decline is more likely to happen extremely fast in Mexico, it is very possible, that many of these projects will fail to pass an early state of implementation. Thus conserving a vast pool of experiences and human resources for earth stewardship scenario response (4).
The spectacular rise of organized criminality and open violence between different drug cartels since 2006, that dominated international news (until this topic was recently replaced by the “swine flu” outbreak), is potentially not an indication of the strength of these structures, rather provides more evidence of the weakness of the central government and its institutions. Despite considerable efforts and immense resources invested by the current government into military and police systems, it’s evident that there is simply not enough energy to maintain control, unlike during the late eighties and nineties.
Narco-business is not something new in Mexico. After all, the huge marketplace is just next door, and has ironically grown ever since Reagan declared his “war on drugs” in the mid-eighties. Organized criminality, fueled by its billion-dollar tax free revenues, occupies large, impoverished, and often rural areas that had been neglected by government and institutions for too long. Parallel (often criminal) power structures are now firmly established, having influence in regional politics, economies, and institutions, in many parts of the country.

III. Evolution of social and environmental initiatives

We should explore how “alternative” movements, “grassroots” initiatives, and civil society in general, have evolved, trying as well to identify experiences and resources that have potential to support the transition in Mexico.

For readers of the so called “developed” countries, it is important to understand that the energy crisis of the 70`s played out quite differently in Mexico and Latinamerica, than it did in most of the affluent-world countries.

In the US, Europe, and Australia, the questions of “limits to growth”, resouces, available energy, and environment were put on the map by well known forces of history, and thus discussed widely even in mainstream society. The “first wave of environmental awareness in modern history”, as David Holmgren calls it (5), provoked many serious investigations and experiments in sustainability related issues. Biointensive gardening, intentional communities, organic agriculture, alternative economics, the permaculture concept, were pioneered during this period of considerable societal activation, mostly in the industrialized contries of the northern hemisphere (plus Australia).

South of Rio Bravo, quite the opposite happened. In Mexico, the energy crisis found its reflection in accelerated fossil fuel extraction to supply global energy markets. This resulted in strong and paternalistic governments, with enough power to incorporate, control, or if necessary, suppresses visible articulation and effective organization in civil society.

Most other Latin-American nations were governed by military regimes quite successful in cutting the lineage of social expressions that had emerged in the late sixties in the rest of the world. Furthermore, in Chile, where A. Pinochet imposed a military government with considerable support from the US in 1973, the first nationwide test of friedmanite free-market economics was launched. This experiment tested the viability of what was going to be promoted and implemented in much of the the rest of the world a decade later.

The seventies were a difficult time for alternative expressions and experiences in Mexico, and all of Latinamerica for that matter, although there were exceptions (see below in “Permaculture” and “Mexico Profundo”).

This situation changed dramatically with the economic crisis of the eighties, and more even after the earthquake in Mexico City in September 1985. In the aftermath of these events, the ineffectiveness of governments and institutions was so evident, that it provoked a strong quest within a wider spectrum of society in search for alternatives. Community organizations, which in the cities took shape in asambleas de barrios, formed (6). Intentional communities were founded (7). The first independent social- ecological initiatives emerged, many of them evolved into NGOs; which carried out much of the early education in sustainability-related issues from the mid eighties up to the end of millennium.

I would identify a first wave of environmental awareness emerging in Mexico during the eighties, a very difficult era for the sustainability movement in the US and Europe. I would even guess that a certain “exodus” of some activists from the north, provoked by widespread disillusion about the re-establishment of high energy patterns in the affluent world during that era, was co-responsible for some of the early stages of this activation.

By the end of the 80s, economic stability and the “first-world-dream”, promised soon to become a reality, temporary silenced the call for a different way of doing the things. Thus many “bottom-up” initiatives entered a consolidation period.

Between 1991 and 1998, an annual gathering called “Vision council - Guardians of the earth”, brought together a colorful diversity of activists and initiatives involved in different aspects of social, ecological, and cultural transformation. This event, and others with a similar inclusive philosophy, prepared the ground for a “second wave of environmental awareness in Mexico.” This new wave emerged strongly in the mid-nineties in response to economical and political crisis. The Zapatista uprising in the state of Chiapas brought the complex re-emergence of indigenous cultures and deep Mexico ( into the agenda. In this context, Mexico was to become one of the first places in the world were the negative impacts of globalization were widely reflected upon. Bioregionalism, organic agriculture, permaculture, the concept of Eco-villages, and, most of all, rediscovery of traditional sustainable culture and practices in rural & indigenous Mexico, attracted stronger interest and acceptance in the wider society.

This perceivable need for change through alternatives was then successfully harvested by public relations campaigners to provoke an electoral “change” in government in favor of the right-wing/ conservative PAN, in 2000. In the aftermath, most of the now relatively urbanized Mexican society was up to believe, for a little while, the dream of a working electoral democracy and “efficient” government. Interest and support for alternative expressions diminished, and once again, these initiatives entered a consolidation period. In the process, many pioneering NGOs disappeared, or were forced to transform themselves into private enterprises.

The polarization of Mexican society around and after the 2006 elections, combined with the ever more evident economical, ecological, social, financial, and resource crisis, are provoking another intense activation of the Mexican society, emerging at the same time as Mexican Peak Oil (2005/ 2006).


(por continuarse)

(segunda parte)

IV. Permaculture in Mexico

Having been, up to now, relatively silent about my own background in sustainable land management, I can´t keep myself from this little diversion analyzing the significance of permaculture and the eco-village concept in Mexico.

One of the early Mexican sustainability-pioneers to be mentioned is Carlos Caballero, who traveled to the US in the mid-fifties to study biodynamic agriculture with Prof. Ehrenfried Pfeifer. After he returned to his family ranch in the highlands of central-Mexican state Tlaxcala, he was to become, with his wife and family, one of the first promoters and practitioners of agroecological and biodynamic concepts in Mexico. Don Carlos Caballero later earned wide recognition for the effective methodology he developed to restore large areas of disturbed landscapes in the temperate tropics to healthy, managed forests again, within a period of 20 to 40 years.

Beginning 1986, his daughter Alejandra Caballero, organized the first regular Permaculture Design Course. Alejandra was also the first person to successfully adapt permaculture principles to the diverse ecological, cultural, and ethnic landscapes of rural Mexico, which found its expression in the inspiring book “Agricultura sostenible – un acercamiento a la permacultura” first published in 1991 (9).

In the late nineties, several permaculture design courses were held in different regions of Mexico, many of them facilitated by Australian educator Skye (from Earthcare Education) and Nelson Denman (from the Permaculture Drylands Institute, USA). Since 2005, some of the worlds “leading experts” in permaculture and ecovillage-development have offered courses here. Most notably Max Lingegger (in 2005 and 2006), Geoff Lawton (2007), and permaculture`s co-developer David Holmgren (in 2007).

All this contributed significantly to the formation of a loose network of Mexican permaculture designers and activists, who have helped to “spread the word”, and more importantly, inspire dozens of projects and individuals to test and experiment its principles.

The Mexican sustainability debate was also re-infused and newly inspired by the publication of the book “ecohabitat”, in 2006 (10). It describes applied examples of eco-villages and permaculture related initiatives in Mexico, as well as providing more conceptual info about planning and design.

However, in Mexico its easy to get trapped in upper/ middle-class green tech developments, ending up designing rich peoples „fraccionamientos“ a bit more ecologically, or projects as „sustainable“ luxury eco-resorts. When I see some of these projects, I feel difficulty in finding them sustainable in any severe energy descent scenario. I understand the seduction of this trap (personally fell into it several times) because somewhat you have to make your living. It’s also attractive to design and implement developments in conditions, where money and labor is abundant, but most of those designs lack representativity for the vast majority of Mexicans, who live under much more tight conditions.

The greatest limitation for ecovillage and permaculture design to influence mainstream sustainability strategies in Mexico in a more convincing way is probably the fact, that most colleges, who participated in permaculture courses or learned the basics of ecovillage design, are part of the more affluent upper/ middle class, which represents a relatively small percentage of Mexican society. Here, you can observe some resistance to „get your hands dirty“, deeply rooted in the Mexican class structure: You can always find a worker for 10 dollars a day to throw over the compost heap or double dig your biointensive garden. This leads to some lack of practical experience in implementing & especially maintaining systems. Too often in the past years, the quite common toolkit approach to permaculture lead also to a new specialization in building just dry toilets, biodigestors, constructed wetlands or lorena stoves, all very important elements, put too often established in isolation of context.

On the other side, there are some very positive and vibrant projects to report: Alejandra Caballero and her partner Francisco Gomez, have developed in recent years the initiative “Proyecto San Isidro“, in the the state of Tlaxcala. They are combining the restoration of 22ha of degraded landscape, with natural building, low-input farming, a school project in the nearby community, and a diverse educational program that has influenced hundreds of individuals over the last two decades. (11)

In the Mexican state Veracruz, Ricardo Romero and his family, during the last fifteen years, have turned a 300 hectare, former diary farm, into a quickly regenerating cloud forest, while exploring organic, low input agriculture on a 4 ha. section of their property. They maintain a huge biointensive garden and sharing their experience in dozens of courses and seminars. “Proyecto agroecologico Las Cañadas” recently initiated a cooperative that includes approximatley 30 members from the nearby village, who are provided the opportunity to use part of the land to obtain their firewood, cultivate corn and beans organically, for their own subsistence.(12)

In our small family project “Granja Tierramor” we are developing a “mini-farm” on small property (2500 square meters) using permaculture principles, since early 2003. The land is located in the village Erongaricuaro, besides lake Pàtzcuaro, at 2200 meters above sea level in the mountains of central-Mexico. In this time, our land is providing all of our greens, vegetables, and herbs for our family (2 adults, 2 kids) as well as some products to be bartered with friends, neighbors, and on the local market. Small fields for corn, oats, wheat, beans, and peas are integrated into the design. Fruit trees and more perennial plant production will hopefully provide more regular harvests in the next years. We also keep chickens and ducks, which have been part of our system for the last two years, providing us fresh eggs, and other ecological services. The soil conditions have greatly improved, using well known strategies, such as composting, earthworms, bocashis, and legume interplantings, or green manure crops. (13)

V. “Mexico Profundo” (Deep Mexico)

Of course, a quarter of an acre is not enough to provide for all our needs, which motivated us to develop a network with neighbors and local farmers, who were willing to produce (or let us produce) organically on their land. We quickly became aware of one of the greatest, and possibly most powerful, assets Mexico has for energy descent: the cultural memory of a self sufficient low-energy lifestyle, which is fading, but still quit alive in rural Mexico.
In our village, just some forty years ago, money was not necessary for survival. Most people were growing food for themselves, and barter was a common practice at the weekly village market. Even some 15 years ago, when we first arrived here, agricultural cycles were dominating the life in our region.
Most of the local farmers we are working with, are well into their sixties or seventies. The most enthusiastic of them, Don Agapito from the village Arocutin, has recently completed 80 years on this planet. As he himself told me, 70 of them farming corn, beans, squash, chili, oats, wheat, tomato, and much more. He is still working his approximately 7 hectares of communal ejido land. His house is surrounded by a wonderfully chaotic, but incredibly productive, food forest, where there is always something edible to harvest. At his home, you will find storages of corn, beans, and wheat that many Peak Oil or permaculture activists only dream about.
When I sit on Don Agapitos Veranda, observing the combined guilds of fruit trees, medicinal plants, berries, and vegetables, I understand why the grandfather of European forest-gardening concept, Robert Hart, found some of his initial inspiration in the description of traditional “house gardens” (huertas de traspatio) that surrounded the houses of indigenous villages in rural Mexico.(14)
There must be dozens of third age campesinos like Don Agapito, in every rural Mexican community. Critical knowledge is hidden here, rapidly disappearing. In Mexico, the dialog of knowledge and generations must be considered an integral part in any serious design-strategy for creative energy descent response.

VI. Food and Agriculture

A quick analysis of the present state of the food production systems can be quite depressing. Mexico as a nation lost its self sufficiency long ago and is a net importer of basic grains (including corn and beans). How Mexico will feed its hundred-million population, now mostly urban and in those extremely degraded landscapes, without fossil fuels, remains unclear, to say the least.
The “green revolution”, implemented by government policies during the late sixties and the seventies, was quite successful in weakening and sterilizing the soils. It also forced formerly self-sufficient farmers, into a dependence on chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and tractors, all of which were supported by cheap and abundant fossil fuel.
The consequences of NAFTA Free Trade Agreement since 1994 have been the most destructive factor to the subsistence agriculture that was a way of life. It has spread the western consumer culture, as well as the ideology, that you have to produce “for the market”, mainly as exportation to the US. This led to a massive loss in both experience and human capital, since many especially younger families have left the rural areas, heading for the cities, or even more commonly, directly for the US. Many of the people who stayed have trasfomed their land into agro-industries.
In our bioregion, avocado farming has become one the greatest agricultural “developments” in the recent past. This has me thinking about how we will redesign those tens of thousands of hectares planted during the last ten years, once export markets collapse.
But the winds of change are blowing ever stronger into the face of the farmers here. In the last three years, chemical fertilizers have doubled in price, making conventional methods of agriculture increasingly impossible. This reality is providing many with the motivation to form a framework for organic and low-input farming.
Some of the most effective strategies to restore agricultural soils massively degraded by chemical agriculture have been developed during the last decade through the work of Columbia-born agronomist Jairo Restrepo and the Brasilian soil scientist Sebatiao Piñedo. They are teaching now through the organization COAS (Consejeros de Agricultura Sostenible y Permacultura – www.coas.com.mx). Their proposals for “agricultura orgánica” have greatly enriched the pool of resources to assist campesinos in the conversion from systems all-too dependent on external resources and energy, towards an agriculture that could work for energy descent.
As it looks at present, we have to be prepared for a massive return to an agrarian society.
In urban areas, the ideas of food gardens on rooftops are spreading rapidly, especially in Mexico-City. Many groups of young “chilangos”, some NGOs, and urban subcultures of “Permaculture-Punks” and Street kids, are promoting and implementing “azoteas verdes.” Food production systems on the rooftops of Mexico City are growing. This is apparently becoming a serious movement in the city, and is to some degree supported by the city government.

VII. Economy
On the economic field, Mexico is facing the rapid decline of its three most important incomes: oil, as we all know, tourism (around 40% decline in one year in the state where I live in), and „remesas“, money sent by the millions of Mexicans working in the US to their families (which was one of the most important direct incomes for many rural families). In these moments, thousants of Mexican workers are returning, since there is nothing to do but spending dollars in Northamericas crumbling economy.
Meanwhile, the living costs are ascending as everywhere- for most Mexicans, this is an extremely complicated situation, only aliviated thanks to the stron family andf community networks.
How this will work out for the big governmental structures, we will see in the upcoming month– In Mexico, it seriously looks as this systems are in great danger of falling short on fuel quite soon-
Maybe all this not so much different in style and direction from what will happen in the US and in many other parts of the world, where the people got used to large net energy injections over the past decades - it has just a bit more spicy Mexican chili on top.

H. Hieronimi,
holger@tierramor.org,
May 2009


References
(1) See ASPO Newsletter No.35 (November 2003)
(2) See authors biography (in Spanish) at http://www.tierramor.org/nosotros/Holger Hieronimi.htm
(3) A small presentation of our permaculture-inspired Homestead in Michoacán, México can be consulted at: http://www.tierramor.org/GranjaTierramor/granjatierramor.htm
(4) Here I relate to David Holmgren´s work on “Future Szenarios” (http://www.futurescenarios.org/) – the fast mexican energy decline sugests “Earth Stewasrdship” or “Lifeboat” Szenarios as the most likely outcomes on the mexican trasition.
(5) David Holmgren “Principles and pathways beyond sustanability”, 2002, Holmgren Design Services, preface p. XVII
(6) asambleas de barrio - were popular responses to deal with the crisis in the aftermath of Mexico-City Earthquake in 1985
(7) Huehuecoyotl, one of the oldest intentional comunities in Mexico, was founded in 1982 as a direct consequence of the economic crisis ( http://www.huehuecoyotl.net/ ).
( here I relate to … classic book “México Profundo”
(9)“Agricultura sostenible – un acercamiento a la permacultura” first published in 1991. This book although now out of print, was and still is a reference for integrated sustainable development in Mexico and Centralamerica. Up to now, it´s the only book ever published in mexico making direct reference to permaculture.
(10) «Ecohabitat - Experiencias rumbo a la sustentabilidad», Arnold Ricalde y Laura Kuri (Compiladores), 2006, SEMARNAT, CECADESU, Organi-K, Mexico D.F., downloadable as PDF from http://www.semarnat.gob.mx/educacionambiental/Documents/ecohabitat.pdf
(11) see http://www.proyectosanisidro.com.mx/ for more info on this project
(12) see http://www.bosquedeniebla.com.mx/ for more info on this project
(13) see documentation (in spanish) with many image-galleries of the authors family-project at http://www.tierramor.org/GranjaTierramor/granjatierramor.htm
(14) see first chapter of Robert Hart`s classic „Forest Gardening“, published in 1991, by Green Books, Ford House, Bideford, Devon EX39 EE, England

¡Excelente trabajo, Holger; enhorabuena! ¡¡Deberías escribir un libro!!

Estoy revisando el articulo con Kristin Sponsler de energybuletin
le estamos haciendo unas cuantas correcciones de estilo y contenido, espero que saldrá pronto por alli

respeto al "cuando" ...pues, no soy profeta
pero ahora todo es artificial, por lo de las elecciones, una vez que se termine el teatro, pues veremos lo que pasará
ya estamos enmedio del descenso, no lo crees ???

sin embargo, no nos dejemos doomear, no me parece necesario
no tiene sentido comprarse latas, armas y esconderse en su cuartito, salgan al bosque y reconecten con el mundo natural, de todos modos será un respuesta mas creativa que deprimirse.

Si veo, lo que los poderosos en este y otros paises están planeando, la verdad, creo que mejor el descenso vendrá mas rápido que lento.

Un libro, que me ayudó muchisimo a entender las dinámicas del descenso, fue "The long descent" de John Michael Greer, y ahorita estoy leyendo "Sacred Demise - Walking the spiritual Path of Industrial Civilizations Collapse", de Carolyn Baker...
La verdad, las dimensiones sutiles de lo que está por venir son mucho mas que los miedos y actividades de tipo "survivalist" de tantos doomers apasionados, que se pasen el tiepo frente la pantalla para recopilar las malas noticias del tiempo presente.

El mundo está lleno de maravillas y oportunidades, mas aun ahora, cuando la caida de los grandes sistemas abre posibilidades inmensas, para que las acciones lentas y pequeñas pueden hacer la diferencia

un saludo, por ahora de la Ciudad de México, en transito a Tlaxcala hacia nuestro curso anual con Alejandra Caballero y Ricardo, chequen el aviso en http://www.tierramor.org/cursos/eventos.htm#PCSanIsidro2009 , haber si no les interesa conectarse con los principios y prácticas para un mundo con menos energéticos concentrados

HH